The New York Times reported Wednesday that Democrats are bracing for a “red wave” in the House of Representatives with two weeks remaining before critical midterm elections.
The Times piece by political reporter Shane Goldmacher, “Democrats, on Defense in Blue States, Brace for a Red Wave in the House,” warns readers that “reality is setting in” with many on the left.
“Republicans are pressing their advantage deep into Democratic territory in the closing stretch of the 2022 campaign, competing for an abundance of House seats amid growing signs that voters are poised to punish President Biden’s party even in the bluest parts of America,” Goldmacher wrote.
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The GOP needs to win a “handful” of seats to take control of the House but Goldmacher cautioned that Republicans might shatter expectations.
“Republicans are looking to run up the score and win a more expansive — and governable —majority by vying for districts in Democratic bastions, including in Rhode Island, which has not sent a Republican to Congress for nearly three decades,” he wrote.
A progressive polling guru told the Times that “reality is setting in” for Democrats and the party’s “goal should now be to limit the party’s losses so it could conceivably try to take back the House in 2024.”
The Times reported that seats in Oregon, California, Rhode Island and New York could be filled by Republicans despite being in districts either carried by President Biden in 2020 or simply traditionally being blue. Goldmacher reported that strategic spending is one of the key reasons why Republican candidates are expected to do so well.
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“The flow of money from super PACs and national party committees, which prioritize the most competitive races, reveals a House battleground landscape that is overwhelmingly tilted toward seats that Mr. Biden won in 2020. Such a landscape is significant: Democrats have all but given up contesting more Republican terrain won by Donald J. Trump, putting the party heavily on the defensive,” Goldmacher wrote.
“Of the 46 House races that had seen at least $3 million in outside spending through this past weekend, 42 of them were carried by Mr. Biden in 2020, according to data compiled by Rob Pyers, the research director for the California Target Book, which analyzes political races,” the Times continued. “Eleven of the districts most flooded with money are seats that Mr. Biden carried by 10 percentage points or more. That is a remarkable number of solidly Democratic seats for Republicans to be contesting.”
But spending isn’t the only thing benefiting the GOP, according to the Gray Lady.
The Times noted “strategists and officials in both parties said they were seeing the trend of both Democratic weakness and Republican overperformance in states that are fully ruled by Democrats,” and that polls indicate voters who are “unhappy about the direction of the nation” are blaming Democrats.
“Others have hypothesized that abortion — the issue that Democrats have used to mobilize the party base and win over moderate women — is less salient in states that have enacted their own abortion protections,” Goldmacher wrote. “Today, top Democratic groups are rushing to triage the House map, with some seats already being all but written off.”
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Last week, the Times sounded the alarm with a warning that a red wave could be on the horizon, and things could quickly become “dire” for Democrats. The piece by Blake Hounshell was bluntly headlined, “Democrats’ Feared Red October Has Arrived,” detailing how the “midterms aren’t shaping up” how Democrats had hoped.
“Here’s the thing about elections: When they break, they usually break in one direction. And right now, all the indicators on my political dashboard are blinking red — as in, toward Republicans,” Hounshell wrote.